集中连片特困地区扶贫产业发展的规模特征及其经济效率评价——以武陵山片区恩施自治州为例

[目的]在扶贫开发战略中成长起来的特色产业已经成为贫困地区经济发展和农民脱贫致富的支柱产业,特色产业的规模和经济效率直接决定着贫困地区脱贫致富能力。[方法]文章以茶叶、蔬菜代表武陵山片区湖北省恩施自治州扶贫产业,利用集中度指数、扩张弹性系数、单位面积的产值能力和产量能力以及单位产量的产值能力等指标进行扶贫产业发展的规模特征及其经济效率评价。[结果]“十一五”期间以来武陵山片区扶贫产业发展的产业地位逐渐提高、规模扩张优势显著、规模收益递增、投入规模扩张率高于产出规模扩张率、资源配置效率不断提高,比较经济效率差距持续扩大。[结论]扶贫产业亟待根据产业发展的生态化、集聚化和融合化等趋势,在规模扩张中强化特色产品的品质建设和效率优势品种生产专业化程度、提高生产技术水平以及完善产业化组织及其能力建设,提高扶贫产业的经济效率和致富能力。     

Perseverance and suspense in tug-of-war

We study a tug-of-war game between two players using the lottery contest success function (CSF) and a quadratic cost (of effort) function. We construct a pure strategy symmetric Markov perfect equilibrium of this game, show that it is unique, and provide closed-form solutions for equilibrium strategies and values. In stark contrast to a model of tug-of-war with an all-pay auction CSF, players exert positive efforts until the very last battle in this equilibrium. We deliver a set of empirically appealing results on effort dynamics.     

老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.     

Does online observational learning matter? Empirical evidence from panel data

The information presented on a product sales page plays an important role in consumers' purchase decisions. This study examines the persuasive effect, whether a customer's choice is heavily driven by information inferred from others' behavior, and how these impacts are moderated by market age and product type. Results show that online customer choice was significantly affected by historical cumulative sales and times saved. Positive cumulative sales and shop service quality have a significant positive impact on product sales. The times saved have no direct impact on product sales. For different types of products, the times saved of experiential products has a significant impact on product sales, while the shop service quality information of search products has a greater impact on product sales. The influence of online observation learning on product sales will be significantly moderated by a combination of product type and market age. These findings not only offer important theoretical contributions to e-commerce research but also provide practical implications for online sellers and managers of social commerce platforms.     

Salvador Allende's development policy: Lessons after 50 years

Last year, 2020, was the 50th anniversary of the opening of the ‘Chilean road to socialism’ by Salvador Allende. Although the Allende government is the political reference for the 'socialism of the 21st century’ in Latin America, international supporters tend to disregard the primary cause of its downfall, focusing instead on the circumstances of Allende's death. This article explains the link between the Allende government's development policies and its macroeconomic outcomes between 1970 and 1973. It finds that Chile's economic collapse had an endogenous cause related to government policies. This supports the views of Mises and Hayek on the feasibility of socialist economic policies. Policymakers and commentators should recognise essential lessons from the Chilean experience to learn from past errors and effectively promote Latin America's economic development.     

Spatial and operational factors behind passenger yield of U.S. nonhub primary airports

Nonhub airports are an essential component in the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS) of the United States in that they connect regional towns and small communities to the air transportation network. Understanding the interplay of operational and spatial factors in determining average passenger yield of nonhub airports provides airlines with valuable information for network planning and revenue management. This study examines factors contributing to the yield variation among nonhub airports in the U.S. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) based econometric models, this study captures the spatial dependence of passenger yield of nonhub airports, which tends to increase with a corresponding increase in distance to the nearest large hub airport. Nonhub airports surrounding large hub airports with higher passenger enplanements and higher average yields also have higher yields than other nonhub airports. In addition, this study finds the effect of Allegiant Airlines in lowering the average passenger yield of the nonhub airports served directly by the airline, which can be termed as ‘Allegiant Effect’. Findings of this study could provide valuable guidance for airlines to analyze network planning strategies and to identify future markets for growth and for policymakers when allocating resources to communities relying on these nonhub airports.     

海洋科技创新驱动区域经济增长影响效应分析

海洋经济被视为引领世界经济发展的新引擎.基于结构方程模型在经济学领域分析复杂关联因素中的优势,采用偏最小二乘结构方程模型研究海洋科技创新能力、蓝色经济发展和区域经济发展之间的关联效应,分析海洋科技与经济发展之间的内在作用机理.实证研究表明:海洋科技创新能力对蓝色经济发展具有显著的直接促进作用;引入蓝色经济作为中介变量形成传导路径,科技创新能力对驱动区域经济发展具有间接效应及明显的总体作用.     

新时代中国国际政治经济学研究:问题与方向

国际形势的迅速变化为国际政治经济学研究提供了更为广阔的研究视野,但面对复杂多变的世界经济和政治形势,单纯的经济学研究往往无法解释现实,经济学、政治学以及社会学等诸多学科间的分立与隔绝状态不利于国际政治经济学的深入发展。中国的国际政治经济学研究需要关注五个方面的问题:第一,打破经济学尤其是国际经济学研究的专业壁垒;第二,加强对经济全球化问题的综合性研究;第三,注重对美国国内经济结构变化及其对社会生活、政治生活与对外政策影响的研究;第四,加强对国际货币、资本、金融运行机制的深入研究并从货币权力视角构建国际政治经济学框架;第五,加强对1500年以来大国兴衰过程中"挑战国陷阱"问题的研究。只有在解决好上述五个问题的基础上,国内理论界才能构建一个符合新时代要求的国际政治经济学理论和大国关系理论,并以此支撑中国的可持续崛起。